Whith the July 31 trade deadline looming, Cliff Lee might only wear a Mariners uniform for another 3-4 starts. That doesn't need to be the case, especially if the Mariners are looking to build a winning team into the future.

The Mariners can afford to keep Cliff Lee in the rotation for the next several years and get some help in the lineup, if they are willing to get creative. According to Cot's, opening day payroll came in at just over $91 million, some of that goes away next year and even more of it gets unloaded after 2011. Of the $71.5 million the M's are committed to (plus about $10 million for arbitration eligible players), $6.5 of it is for Carlos Silva and Yuniesky Betancourt, with another $13 million is for Milton Bradley. I can't imagine any of that salary being around in 2012.

Cliff Lee will be priced in the same range as other ace starters, like C.C. Sabathia ($24.5 million), Roy Halladay ($20 million), and the M's own Felix Hernandez ($19.2 million). Let's assume he won't cost as much as Sabathia and goes for $20 million a year. At almost 32, he's not likely to get more than 4 years from anyone because he could be amazing until he's 40 or he could start having health problems by the time he's 35. So doing the math for 2011, a $20 million Cliff Lee puts known payroll plus Lee at $101.5 million.

The Mariners will need to spend some money to upgrade a few positions. First base and catcher are gaping holes. Branyan is a temporary fix at first and there's no helping the Rob Johnson situation behind the plate. Assume $6 million for a decent first baseman and another $3 million for a catcher. Trading Aardsma might help with either of those. There's good reason to think we should be looking for at least two more relievers. Cliff Lee and Felix pitching complete games is an indication that there's no confidence in the bullpen. And utlitity players look a little sparse, although Josh Wilson may be a legit choice in the infield, with no one available to backup the Saunders/Guttierez/Ichiro outfield. Assume another $5 million for a mix of utility both on the field and in the bullpen. That's an additional $14 million, putting the payroll at about $115 with Cliff Lee. Minus the dead weight from Silva, that's really a $110 payroll for 2011.

A 2011 rotation with Cliff Lee should win an easy 95 games with a batting order that looks anything close to the one going into the All Star break. What could this team look like:

Starting Rotation

RH - Felix Hernandex
LH - Cliff Lee
LH - Jason Vargas
RH - Doug Fister
LH - Ryan Roland-Smith

Outfield

RF - Ichiro Suzuki
CF - Franklin Guttierez
LF - Michael Saunders
OF - ?
OF - ?

Infield

1B - ?
2B - Chone Figgins
SS - Jack Wilson
3B - Jose Lopez
IN - Dustin Ackley
IN - Josh Wilson

Catcher

C - ?
C - ?

DH - Milton Bradley

Relief Pitchers

RP - David Aardsma
RP - Brandon League
RP - Shawn Kelley
RP - ?
RP - ?

The thing that makes the lineup interesting is that Figgins could shift back to third some of the time if Ackley is ready in the spring, with Lopez sharing the DH role with Bradley for some games and Bradley rotating into left field. The $115 million price tag for this team is slightly less than the 2008 Mariners and slightly more than the 2007 Mariners. If the Mariners are rebuilding this year, finding a way to keep Cliff Lee makes more sense than trading for a bat that likely won't stay long term.

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Wak finally gets ejected and Griffey gets to play the hero one more time. The last two games look like the M's might finally be hitting. My schedule this week prevented me from attending the whole game, but I saw the two innings that mattered. I walked into the stadium in the bottom of the 8th with Ichiro on first and Figgins at the plate.

After Ichiro gets thrown out at second to end the 8th inning, Wakamatsu argued with second base umpire Andy Fletcher and gets ejected. Wak didn't even look mad. I'm suspicious that most of the discussion revolved around Wak saying, "I know it wasn't a bad call, but I have to support my #1 guy. Show my team I care and throw me out."

Top of the 9th was 3 quick outs by Shawn Kelley. The bottom of the inning is where things got interesting. Kevin Gregg looked more like the pitcher the Cubs unloaded after last year, with his second blown save of the season, brought on by 2 hits, 2 walks, and a Griffey walk-off single. Griffey still looks like it's time for him to retire, but the team needed this one in a big way.

Josh Bard continues to look like the guy we should have called on behind the plate from the beginning of the season. It will be interesting to see how things shake out when Adam Moore ends his stint on the DL.

Game 41 and we're sitting at 15-26.

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Beltre, Silva, Hannahan, Chavez, Morrow, Johjima. These are the names that are gone. The Mariners added Cliff Lee, Chone Figgins, Kaneokoa Texiera, Adam Moore, Brandon League, Milton Bradley and Casey Kotchman. Look at those two lists and it is clear that the Mariners are a better team in 2010.

Meanwhile, the Rangers' offensive power was only marginally changed by the addition of Vladimir Guerrero, while the Texas starting rotation has no ace with an array of number-three starters. Neftali Feliz may throw 100 m.p.h., but the team's bullpen remains undistinguished.

Oakland has great pitching potential without a proven ace (who is not recovering from shoulder surgery). Ben Sheets may be the signing of the year, but his Spring Training ERA of 11.28 doesn't bode well.

Finally, the Angels remain a force to be reckoned with. Hideki Matsui is a marginal upgrade from Guerrero, now DHing in Texas. The infield is questionable with Brandon Wood learning on the job at third while Howie Kendrick remains middling at second. The rotation is, essentially, a string of number-two starters without John Lackey. Ervin Santana's no shoe-in for comeback player of the year, though he needs to be if the Angels are going to repeat their 2009 record of 97-65. 

Will the Angels give up 12 wins? Not likely. They are a 92 to 95 game winner, which will keep them at the top of the AL West. Seattle will likely pick up five wins this season, ending at 90-72, which will keep them in the Wild Card running until the end of the season. The question is whether New York, Boston or Tampa Bay, playing against one another in the toughest division in baseball, will earn more wins to take the Wild Card from Seattle. The odds say "yes."

The M's are the third-youngest team in the majors. This squad—with or without Cliff Lee—will make it to the play-offs, but probably not in 2010.

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The Mariners finally announced the five starters for the beginning of the 2010 season. There's no Cliff Lee, due to his abdominal strain. Erik Bedard likely won't see action until May either. Garrett Olson and Luke French are both headed for Tacoma, which means the team has narrowed things down to five. So who is left?

We already knew Felix Hernandez would be the number one man in the rotation. He gets the opening day start on April 5 in Oakland. Ian Snell is starting in the second spot in the rotation. Ryan Rowland-Smith is arguably the second best starter of the healthy pitchers, but he's in the third spot to give him the opening day slot in Seattle on April 12. Doug Fister and Jason Vargas fill slots four and five in the rotation. Those last two are most likely to get bumped as Lee and Bedard get healthy.  

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With spring break coming up around the Seattle area, it's not too late to plan your trip to Peoria for Spring Training. For some of the best opportunities to see the players in action, here are some helpful tips.

Arrive Early

If you only go for the game, you will have missed some of the best of spring training. Starting at about 9am players of all levels are on the six fields running fielding drills, taking batting practice, working on that new pitch in the bullpen, and basically getting ready for the season. There are bleachers for watching the action at most of the fields. You can get great position for some close-up photos. And if you want to get autographs, the atmosphere is laid back and the players are all very receptive.

Stay near the Stadium

The La Quinta Phoenix Inn and Suites Peoria Hotel, located directly across the street from the Peoria sports complex where the Mariners and Padres share a spring training home, is a great home base for visiting spring training. The hotel isn't fancy, but it's clean and there's no fighting morning rush hour to drive across town to the sports complex. You can easily go back to your room if you need a change of clothes. There's no need to fight the five thousand other people in the stadium parking lot, you can simply leave your car at La Quinta and stroll over.

Attend More Games

If you want to get autographs from several players or have specific players you want to see take batting practice and play in the games, you need to plan to stay for more than one game. The availablility of players varies by day, so you improve your chances of catching everyone if you're around for a few days.

Buy the Expensive Seats

At $23, the best seats in the house are cheaper than what it costs to sit in the upper deck at Safeco. If possible, sit behind the 3B dugout where the Mariners will be camped out. You are guaranteed to see your favorite Mariners players up close. You might even get a baseball. Just be sure you pay attention to when the game starts because you are right on top of the action.

Bring a Camera

This goes hand in hand with arriving early. There are so many photo opportunties it's amazing. In some cases, asking the players to pose for you (or with you) works, while other times you may just want to get action shots from one of the six practice fields.

Promotional Days

These are pretty consistent from year-to-year. This year you can get a Family 4 Pack for $30, which includes 4 hot dogs, 4 small sodas, 4 bags of chips, and 4 tickets on the outfield lawn every Monday. Wednesdays offer $2 hot dogs. Active and retired military get $2 off ticket prices at any game. Every Friday is $2 off lawn seats with a college ID.

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Spring gives a glimpse of the future, letting young players show their stuff to the club and fans. Two of the young players at this camp, Matt Tuiasosopo and Adam Moore, are going to make it very difficult for the Mariners to go North without them. Both are having fantastic Spring Training. 

Here are their lines as of Sunday afternoon:

Tuiasosopo 4R 9H 1HR 4RBI 17TB 2BB 2SO 1SB .500OBP .850SLG .450AVG
Moore 0R 8H 0HR 2RBI 10TB 3BB 3SO 0SB .556OBP .625SLG .500AVG

Sure, it's Spring, but this is the second year that Tuiasosopo has had a torrid camp. Moore, meanwhile, is the likely catcher of the future, despite Rob Johnson's having handled much of the catching in '09. Moore's a better offensive option than Johnson, who is two years older and has battled injuries.

Kenji Johjima, last year's Opening Day catcher, thankfully, has returned to Japan to finish his career—his contract was an albatross around the Mariners' collective necks.

Johnson, who had multiple surgeries over the Winter, will start his second Spring game on Monday. Dan Wilson, speaking about a conversation he had with Johnson during the broadcast on Saturday, said Johnson's hips feel "looser" than they have, which will make him more agile and better able to throw. The likely outcome will be that veteran Josh Bard, who the M's signed in the off-season, will be the back-up catcher on Opening Day, if Johnson's not ready.

Otherwise, if Johnson is healthy, he and Moore will share backstop duty, with Moore getting the start for his offense versus lefties, against whom he has batted .667.

It's Tuiasosopo, however, about whom the Mariners must make a decision that will be difficult. Seattle's infield is packed solid with the signing of Chone Figgins to take over Second Base for Jose Lopez, who will man Third, Jack Wilson and Casey Kotchman. Tuiasosopo has filled in at every one of these positions over the years—he should be the team's infield utility man this year instead of Jack Hannahan, for whom the Mariners traded last July when Adrian Beltre was injured. Hannahan adds nothing offensively, having batted only .213 last year between Oakland and Seattle.

Tuiasosopo made the team last year, but fell to an elbow injury and played only 10 games with Seattle. This year, he should be with the team to fill in at any infield position. Chone Figgins, another former utility player, is proof that it's time for Tui to stay in the majors.

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According to some great behind-the-scenes reporting from Geoff Baker over at The Seattle Times Mariners Blog, the Mariners are completely re-inventing the traditional baseball training regimen. It was announced many weeks ago that Marcus Elliott, founder of the Peak Performance Project (P3), was enlisted to overhaul the Mariners workouts. Baker has some great insight on what's really going on behind the scenes.

As Baker reports it:

In a nutshell, the idea is to focus on reducing injuries and making Seattle players more athletic through a series of workouts that have little to do with traditional weightlifting.

An injury free Mariners lineup, especially considering the history of Milton Bradley, Junior, and Jack Wilson's recent aches and pains, might make for an unstoppable force in the AL West. In addition to reduced reliance on weightlifting, the team is rethinking the traditional distance run starting pitchers perform the day after a start. P3 is no stranger to working with baseball players on an individual basis, with a track record that most notably includes Brewers left fielder Ryan Braun, but this is the first time an entire ballclub has committed to the P3 program.

Below you can see some video footage Geoff Baker shared from behind the scenes.

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The Mariners signed right-handed batting Ryan Garko, who can play first base and catch, Monday. Following the addition of Eric Byrnes on Friday, the team's need for a right-handed bat is checked off, times two at a bargain-basement price of $1.5 million. Garko can earn $500,000 with incentives. The question is, with these two signings, who will be knocked off the Mariners' 25-man roster to make room?

Michael Saunders, the 23-year-old left fielder who made a tepid first appearance in the majors with Seattle last summer is the likely candidate for a trip to Tacoma. Having batted only .221, with no home runs and 40 strike outs in 122 at bats, Saunders is a less attractive backup outfielder than Byrnes, while Garko provides extra flexibility at first base. This means 23-year-old Mike Carp, the rookie first baseman who filled in for 21 games after Russell Branyan's back injury last season, is also likely headed to the minors.

One both could be packaged with a reliever for a young starting pitcher.  

Saunders had a relatively hot bat in the minors, picking up 13 HRs and 32 RBIS in the 62 games he played in Tacoma last year. Carp showed promise in his limited at-bats in Seattle, batting .315 with an on-base percentage of .415 in his 54 plate appearances. Add a reliever to the package and perhaps a team like the Rays, which is packed with starting pitching talent, could be interested in a trade. Wade Davis, anyone?

The Mariners picked up Carp in the J.J. Putz deal last winter and GM Jack Zduriencik has shown a willingness to deal fast and frequently. The Rainiers, Seattle's AAA affiliate, can certainly use Carp this coming season, so Saunders is the most logical pick to be traded based on his promising minor-league performance.

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It's an excellent time to look at the Mariner's payroll obligations for the coming season and 2011 onward.

Having been the most active and potentially the biggest winners in this Hot Stove season, there is a lot of speculation that 2010 is a roll of the dice on a single season. Adding Cliff Lee, signing Felix Hernandez for five more years, bringing in Chone Figgins to take over third base, gambling (a little) on Milton Bradley and opting for solid defense at first base in Casey Kotchman, instead of a slugger, the Mariners appear fully committed financially, with few options left.

Quite the contrary. The Mariners are positioned to build a strong contender for the next five seasons, given the team's current payroll obligations for 2010 and the future. GM Jack Zduriencik has a huge budget for free agents in 2011 and can easily sign Cliff Lee for $18 million a season going forward, if he chooses.

At this writing, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the Mariners are spending approximately $85 million on its anticipated 25-man roster in 2010. That is the same as most of the last decade and well below the high-water marks in 2007 and 2008, when the M's spent $106 million and $117 million, respectively. 

That means Zduriencik can go into the last few weeks before Spring Training opens—pitchers and catchers report in just more than three weeks—with the ability to spend another $10 million or so on "bargains" that emerge as veterans concede their contract demands in favor of the safety of a job. The team needs another bat and a solid number-three starter. Plenty of quality guys are still available.

It is entirely conceivable that we'll see Erik Bedard or Jarrod Washburn back in 2010 for an incentive-laden contract, for example, along with a veteran in the fourth starting slot, such as Jason Schmidt, on a gamble that he can return to his 130-96, 3.96 career ERA ways. Jermaine Dye would be interesting, too, though redundant on today's roster.

In 2011, however, the Mariners have only $70 million committed as of now. Signing Cliff Lee at $18 million a season eats up the difference between now and then, but a real contender also makes more money and can spend on more talent. Moreover, Jack Zduriencik's ability to put together a win-win deal gives the team considerable leeway (pun intended) in the 2011 off-season, when a veritable glut of big-ticket players will hit the free agent market, including Carl Crawford, who could be Seattle's long-term answer in left field, Jason Werth, Josh Beckett, Brandon Webb, and others.

The Yankees are said to be intent on signing Crawford. It would be fun to beat them at their game through smarter spending. Let's assume that Albert Pujols will sign with the Cards right now, and avoid dreaming.

Imagine this 2011 opening day line-up and the salaries:

C Rob Johnson and Adam Moore $1.2M
1B Carlos Peña  $12M
2B Jose Lopez  $5M
SS Jack Wilson  $5M 
3B Chone Figgins  $9.5M
RF Ichiro  $18M
CF Franklin Gutierrez $4.3M
LF Carl Crawford  $14M
DH Milton Bradley  $13.3M

SP Felix Hernandez  $10.7M
SP Cliff Lee  $18M
SP Matt Cain (traded for younger pitchers by SF in his option year)  $8.5M
SP Kevin Millwood or Brandon Webb (Free Agents) $8M
SP Doug Fister, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Luke French, etc. $1.5M

Bull Pen: $8.5M

That roster would cost $137.5 million, less than the Phillies are spending this year. Peña would add 35 HRs and a lot of RBIs with Ichiro and Figgins at the top of the batting order and Crawford, with his .772 career OPS and 60 steals, would take Wak Ball, a National-league flavor of the game that succeeds on moving runners along the bases, to an unprecedented level.

Sure, that payroll represents a significant increase over the current payroll, but it would be offset by improved ticket sales if the team is competing for a World Series berth. One can dream, but the price of a championship team—one that can repeat—is dear.

It also may not be that high, as the team could deal Bradley, if he has a good year, Jack Wilson to make way for Carlos Truinfel, and Jose Lopez, moving Figgins to second base so that Alex Liddi or Matt Tuiasosopo can step in at third. 2009 first-round pick Dustin Ackley, too, could take up first base, second base, left field and split time at DH.

Realistically, then, the 2011 Mariners payroll could include four top-tier starting pitchers and at least one more power bat for somewhere near $120 million. A resurgent economy, on top of a contending team, will help drive revenue, too. The team would be profitable and a perennial contender in the American League West and for the World Series.

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This via U.S.S. Mariner and Francisco Blavia, who originally tweeted the rumor in Spanish that the Mariners are close to signing CF Franklin Gutierrez to an extension. No deal has been announced by the team, but the terms are purportedly $20.5 million for four years, plus a fifth year team option. At $5.13 million a year over the life of the deal, this is an excellent move by GM Jack Zduriencik.

A plus defensive center fielder who is a solid foundation for the foreseeable future, Gutierrez has shown steady improvement with his bat, though his 122 strikeouts in 2009 leaves room for concern. Gutierrez has proven his clutch hitting ability, getting on with bunts and slashing drives to be in position score in late innings. 

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