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Published By Mitch Ratcliffe & Jake Ludington

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A Case for the Mariners Keeping Cliff Lee

Whith the July 31 trade deadline looming, Cliff Lee might only wear a Mariners uniform for another 3-4 starts. That doesn't need to be the case, especially if the Mariners are looking to build a winning team into the future.

The Mariners can afford to keep Cliff Lee in the rotation for the next several years and get some help in the lineup, if they are willing to get creative. According to Cot's, opening day payroll came in at just over $91 million, some of that goes away next year and even more of it gets unloaded after 2011. Of the $71.5 million the M's are committed to (plus about $10 million for arbitration eligible players), $6.5 of it is for Carlos Silva and Yuniesky Betancourt, with another $13 million is for Milton Bradley. I can't imagine any of that salary being around in 2012.

Cliff Lee will be priced in the same range as other ace starters, like C.C. Sabathia ($24.5 million), Roy Halladay ($20 million), and the M's own Felix Hernandez ($19.2 million). Let's assume he won't cost as much as Sabathia and goes for $20 million a year. At almost 32, he's not likely to get more than 4 years from anyone because he could be amazing until he's 40 or he could start having health problems by the time he's 35. So doing the math for 2011, a $20 million Cliff Lee puts known payroll plus Lee at $101.5 million.

The Mariners will need to spend some money to upgrade a few positions. First base and catcher are gaping holes. Branyan is a temporary fix at first and there's no helping the Rob Johnson situation behind the plate. Assume $6 million for a decent first baseman and another $3 million for a catcher. Trading Aardsma might help with either of those. There's good reason to think we should be looking for at least two more relievers. Cliff Lee and Felix pitching complete games is an indication that there's no confidence in the bullpen. And utlitity players look a little sparse, although Josh Wilson may be a legit choice in the infield, with no one available to backup the Saunders/Guttierez/Ichiro outfield. Assume another $5 million for a mix of utility both on the field and in the bullpen. That's an additional $14 million, putting the payroll at about $115 with Cliff Lee. Minus the dead weight from Silva, that's really a $110 payroll for 2011.

A 2011 rotation with Cliff Lee should win an easy 95 games with a batting order that looks anything close to the one going into the All Star break. What could this team look like:

Starting Rotation

RH - Felix Hernandex
LH - Cliff Lee
LH - Jason Vargas
RH - Doug Fister
LH - Ryan Roland-Smith

Outfield

RF - Ichiro Suzuki
CF - Franklin Guttierez
LF - Michael Saunders
OF - ?
OF - ?

Infield

1B - ?
2B - Chone Figgins
SS - Jack Wilson
3B - Jose Lopez
IN - Dustin Ackley
IN - Josh Wilson

Catcher

C - ?
C - ?

DH - Milton Bradley

Relief Pitchers

RP - David Aardsma
RP - Brandon League
RP - Shawn Kelley
RP - ?
RP - ?

The thing that makes the lineup interesting is that Figgins could shift back to third some of the time if Ackley is ready in the spring, with Lopez sharing the DH role with Bradley for some games and Bradley rotating into left field. The $115 million price tag for this team is slightly less than the 2008 Mariners and slightly more than the 2007 Mariners. If the Mariners are rebuilding this year, finding a way to keep Cliff Lee makes more sense than trading for a bat that likely won't stay long term.

Enter Garko, exit Saunders and Carp?

The Mariners signed right-handed batting Ryan Garko, who can play first base and catch, Monday. Following the addition of Eric Byrnes on Friday, the team's need for a right-handed bat is checked off, times two at a bargain-basement price of $1.5 million. Garko can earn $500,000 with incentives. The question is, with these two signings, who will be knocked off the Mariners' 25-man roster to make room?

Michael Saunders, the 23-year-old left fielder who made a tepid first appearance in the majors with Seattle last summer is the likely candidate for a trip to Tacoma. Having batted only .221, with no home runs and 40 strike outs in 122 at bats, Saunders is a less attractive backup outfielder than Byrnes, while Garko provides extra flexibility at first base. This means 23-year-old Mike Carp, the rookie first baseman who filled in for 21 games after Russell Branyan's back injury last season, is also likely headed to the minors.

One both could be packaged with a reliever for a young starting pitcher.  

Saunders had a relatively hot bat in the minors, picking up 13 HRs and 32 RBIS in the 62 games he played in Tacoma last year. Carp showed promise in his limited at-bats in Seattle, batting .315 with an on-base percentage of .415 in his 54 plate appearances. Add a reliever to the package and perhaps a team like the Rays, which is packed with starting pitching talent, could be interested in a trade. Wade Davis, anyone?

The Mariners picked up Carp in the J.J. Putz deal last winter and GM Jack Zduriencik has shown a willingness to deal fast and frequently. The Rainiers, Seattle's AAA affiliate, can certainly use Carp this coming season, so Saunders is the most logical pick to be traded based on his promising minor-league performance.

Felix Hernandez signs 5-year $87 million contract

According to a source close to Buster Olney of ESPN the Magazine, Felix Hernandez signed a 5-year contract with the Mariners for approximately $80 million. Francisco Blavia commented on Twitter that the terms of the deal of 5 years and $78 million. At an average of $15.6 million per year, Felix is a steal relative to other pitchers of his caliber. CC Sabathia penned a deal with the Yankees for about $23 million per year for 7 years at the end of 2008 and Johan Santana got $20 million/year for 7 years, with the potential to make closer to $22 million with incentives. It remains to be seen whether Felix can continue to perform at the level he displayed in 2009, when he went 19-5 as runner up to Zack Greinke for the AL Cy Young award. Assuming he does, Felix will look like the pitching deal of the decade.

 

Northwest Diamond Notes

Seattle Mariners | Tacoma Rainiers (AAA Mariners) | Portland Beavers (AAA Padres)